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Too Good for the Comments: Ebeling on Mises the Applied Economist

Written on March 11th, 2010 by adminno shouts

[This was simply too good to leave in the comments, so I've reposted it here - SH]

Richard Ebeling

Since Peter began with some quotes, including one by Ludwig von Mises, may I offer a little "doctrinal" interpretation about how Mises actually acted as a economic theorist and policy analyst?

First, too many of us (and this included me for many years) viewed and considered Mises as primarily the grand "armchair" theorist considering the sweeping issues of economic institutional orders; the workings of the monetary system and market process; the nature and interconnections between time, money, production, and business cycles; and the logic and structure of human action and choice.

And this is certainly the of side of Mises’ thought and writings that often carry a timeless quality to them because they deal with and are articulated in terms of the general and universal aspects of man, mind, markets, and society.

But Mises made did not make his living as a grand theorist. For almost a quarter of a century, from 1909 to 1934 (except for most the years of the Great War), Mises worked as economic policy analyst and advisor to the Vienna Chamber of Commerce. From the age of 28 to 53 (at which time he moved to Geneva, Switzerland to accept his first full-time academic position as the Graduate Institute of International Studies) he spent his working day as a “policy wonk.” And I mean a “policy wonk” – someone immersed in the factual details and economic policy specifics of, first, the old Austro-Hungarian government and, then, the Austrian Republic between the two World Wars. His statistical knowledge of “the facts” of fiscal policy, regulatory legislation, and Austrian monetary institutions and policy was precise and minute.

This became very clear to me while I have worked through those “lost papers” of Ludwig von Mises that were recovered by my wife and myself from a formerly secret KGB archive in Moscow. And, I might add, that the last of the three volumes of the “Selected Writings of Ludwig von Mises” based on these papers and which Liberty Fund has been publishing has, now – finally!! – been finished and will be out in the not too distant future. (This last volume, which I have prepared, actually covers his earliest period, that is, Mises’ writings on monetary and fiscal policy problems from before, during, and just after the First World War.)

Indeed, it has become clear to me that much of Mises’ conception of the general economic order, its workings and requirements, and the institutional and policy “rules” that would help establish and maintain freedom and prosperity did not arise from a pure “a priori” deductive spinning out of implications from the “action axiom.”

They are, in many cases, the general theoretical insights and the social institutional and economic policy “wisdoms” derived from living through, acting within, and learned lessons from those momentous and often catastrophic events that shook Europe in the first half of the twentieth century, and particularly as experienced in the everyday reality of Austrian political and economic life during this time.
What is also clear from reading Mises’ policy writings from this period of his European career, is that if you had asked him a fiscal, or monetary, or regulatory policy question in the context of his role as analyst at the Chamber of Commerce, he would not have said, and did not simply say, “laissez-faire” – abolish the central bank, deregulate the economy, and eliminate taxes.

He accepts that there are certain institutional “givens” that must be taken for granted, and in the context of which policy options and decisions must be worked out.

He seemed to usually think with three policy “horizons” in his mind. The first, and the more distant, “horizon,” concerned the most optimal institutional and policy arrangement in society for the fostering of the (classical) liberal ideal of freedom and prosperity?

This is captured most frequently in the books and articles he was writing outside of his narrow role as Chamber economist. That is, those works from which most of us know many of his ideas – “The Theory of Money and Credit,” “Socialism,” “Liberalism,” “Monetary Stabilization and Cyclical Policy,” and “Critique of Interventionism” – from before the Second World War.

The second “horizon,” was closer to the actual circumstances of the present, but focused on the intermediary goals that would be leading in the direction of that more distant, “optimal” horizon. For example, ending a paper money inflation and reestablishing a gold-based monetary system, for general economic stability without which the market order and economic calculation cannot properly function. Or concerned with fiscal policy, and reducing the burden and incidence of the tax structure to end capital consumption and foster capital formation.

(And, I should mention, that as a policy analyst thinking in terms of classical liberal normative “preferences,” Mises does not advocate, “tax neutrality.” That is, a low tax structure that would fund those minimal limited government functions, but would not attempt, outside of this, to “influence” the behavior or choices of the market participants. He believes that such a low tax system should be structured in such a way that IT DOES foster and generate incentives for investment and capital formation. The tax structure, in his view, should be designed to stimulate production, not current consumption.)

And the third “horizon” in the context of which Mises analyzes and proposes economic policies, is the current situation and the immediate future. In other words, how do you design the concrete bylaws and rules for a central bank to prevent it from following an inflationary monetary policy, including the transition to and implementation of specie redemption, and the policy “tools” it should then use to maintain the exchange rate and convertibility?

While in the 1970s Murray Rothbard may have once criticized Milton Friedman for advocating “indexation” as a method to reduce some of the negative effects from an on-going inflation, in 1922, during the worsening Great Austrian Inflation, Mises actually proposed “indexation” of wages and prices, and government revenues and expenditures to reduce deficit fiscal pressures, maintain real standards of living for many in the society, and eliminate some of the inflationary distortions on economic calculation – as a part of a specific policy agenda to bring the inflation to an end. And he explained how the indexation should be implemented.

Mises did not just say, “Cut bureaucracy and their spider’s web of regulatory controls.” He first explained what was inefficient and unnecessary in the three-tiered Austrian bureaucratic system of federal, provincial and municipal regulators and taxing authorities. Then he explained what reforms should be introduced, how they could be “experimented” with in some of the smaller regions of Austria to see how they worked before extending them to the rest of the country, and how best to overcome the resistance of those in the bureaucracy fearful of losing their jobs.

In designing a new fiscal order for Austria, Mises proposed eliminating all income taxes and many – but not all – corporate and business taxes. But how, then, do you finance the costs of government? He presents an agenda for implementing indirect taxes on a wide variety of consumption items, and especially what today would be called “sin taxes” and “luxury taxes.” And government welfare state expenditures were not going to just “disappear.” So, employers would be taxed to cover existing social insurance expenditures. This was all meant to foster capital formation through predominately consumption taxation to cover fiscal costs.

And in a lengthy monograph that he wrote during the Second World War devoted to economic reform in an underdeveloped country like Mexico, he took as “given” that the politics of the society was not ready to fully privatize, say, the national railway system or the oil industry. So as a “second best,” Mises proposed transforming the railway system into a government owned but privately managed corporation with strict rules and procedures to assure it was run in a relatively “business-like” manner with the least likelihood of political interference. He even supported limited and temporary subsidies to assist poor farmers to establish themselves as more successful private enterprisers.

And on tariffs, he did not propose immediate abolition. He accepted that there were many industries that had grown up behind the trade barriers, and that they would resist immediate repeal of trade protectionism. So, instead, he advocated “incrementalism,” i.e., a gradual reduction of the tariff barriers over several years.

And he even supported a limited degree “trade retaliation” in the face of a trading partner raising its tariffs against the goods of one’s own nation, as a means of nudging that trading partner back to a freer trade policy.

Now, in explaining all of these things, it is not my purpose to argue whether Mises’ specific policy proposals were “right” or “wrong,” or more or less “reasonable” or “realistic.”

But it is to point out that there is a very interesting “other side” to Ludwig von Mises as practicing economist, and how surely the most famous and thorough-going “Austrian” economist of the 20th century saw the nature of policy evaluation and policy implementation in the “real world.”

There is often no alternative but thinking in terms of a “second” or “third” best. But that thinking is more soundly directed if done in terms of an image of what the “first” best would be, and how the “second” and “third” bests might be designed to move in the direction of that “first” best, or at least not to be in contradiction with it.

This is certainly the way that Mises attempted to think about and propose economic policy options in the world in which he lived in Austria, where many ideological and political ideas and practices had to be taken as “given” in the short-run.

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Should Anyone Bet On the US Dollar?

Written on March 11th, 2010 by adminno shouts

~ Frederic Sautet ~

The main problem with legal tender fiat currencies is that one can hardly escape them. As Hayek came to realize in the 1970s, a major issue with currency and central banking in the 20th century is the lack of competition. As the USD lost 50% of its value in the last eight years (it went from $0.9 to the € in January ’02 to around $1.4 now), what was unthinkable a few years ago has now become the most important question: is the US government prepared to let its currency go?

Mario Rizzo’s interesting post on functional finance points to a possible answer. According to the theory, the current period of expansionary fiscal policy aims to fight the recession and will be later followed by a tightening of fiscal and monetary policy to prevent inflation (as Mario points out, there are plenty of reasons to think that this won’t happen). Functional finance thus says that once the crisis is over the government should send strong signals to the market (especially the bond market) that it is committed to keep a strong USD and is therefore willing to cap inflation, the deficit, and the public debt. If the government doesn’t do that, the USD may continue to tank, as the market will probably interpret the government’s position as: “we are willing to let the USD go in order to finance our runaway spending.”

And that’s what the price of gold seems to be saying. The Chinese government agrees. China’s gold reserves are high. It is also investing in various gold mining industries around the planet. It is preparing slowly but surely for a post-USD world. Devaluation of the USD is not a huge problem for the US government as long as international commerce is done in USD and the government borrows internationally in its own currency. However, if this were to change, the US government could suddenly realize that letting the USD go can be a very costly policy.

If one adds to all this that the public debt and public deficit are approaching dangerous territories, that many states are on the verge of default, and that unfunded liabilities are growing exponentially as time goes by, the possibility of a US government default is non trivial. As Ken Rogoff reminded us recently [hat tip: Jerry O’Driscoll], the US government has defaulted before in the 1930s and went off the gold standard. The negative impact on the value of the USD was huge: it lost 50% overnight in terms of gold.

So should anyone bet on the USD? I would say no. But then again, countries turn around when they face the abyss. Perhaps when the US government realizes what it is about to lose, it will change course. It might be too late, however. So have you bought gold lately? And if you bet against the USD, what's your strategy to protect your assets?

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More Krugman Obfuscation

Written on March 11th, 2010 by adminno shouts
Steven Horwitz

I haven't gone after Krugman for awhile, so why not today, especially when he's repeating myths about Herbert Hoover?  But that's not the real problem.  The real problem is how he spins the graph below, which shows the rate of change in consumption expenditures and gross investment by various levels of government:

Fredgraph 

Krugman's interpretation is:

The green line shows the rate of growth of federal G, which did shoot up, although it’s starting to fade out. The red line shows state and local G, which moved in the opposite direction. And the blue line in the middle shows the total, which did nothing much.

Now, this omits tax cuts and transfer payments, which presumably did something. But I think it’s fair to say that state and local cuts largely offset federal stimulus.

Now I'm no math whiz, but this seems wrong in four ways (and please correct me if you think I've interpreted this wrong or unfairly):

1. The red line did indeed "move in the opposite" direction of the green line.  But since this is rates of change, moving in the opposite direction does NOT mean that there was an absolute decline in state and local expenditures (with the exception of the brief period they were below the zero line).  The rest of the recession period state and local expenditures were increasing or constant.  "Moving in the opposite direction" when graphing rates of change does not imply the two things "offset".  Only time below zero does, and that is only a portion of the whole recession period here.

2. And this calls into question the conclusion that the total "did nothing much."  To the contrary:  the blue line, though falling, shows a consistently above zero growth rate.  Yes, the second derivative is negative, but the first is positive and that means total government expenditures were clearly growing over this period, rather than doing "nothing much."  There is no technical definition of "nothing much," but one would assume that means pretty close to a zero first derivative.  This one seems to average around 2% over the period.  When two growth rate lines are above zero but for a small portion for one, the sum of them cannot be zero or "nothing much."

3. By doing this in percentage terms, we don't get a sense of absolute magnitude.  For example, an average 2% growth rate of the total amount of federal, state, and local government spending is "real money" as they say. 

4. The growth rates may not look especially large when put up against early last decade, but those expenditures were surely 9/11-related.  Discounting that effect and looking at 2003-forward, the average height of the blue line during the current recession seems distinctly higher than it was in years prior.

No question state and local government expenditures have flat-lined recently, but where Krugman wants to read that as an explanation for why the recession is lingering (i.e., not enough boost in G), isn't it more plausible to argue that it's an effect not a cause?  With 10% unemployment and private investment way down, the tax revenues aren't there and most states can't deficit spend.  State and local G is down because of the recession.

So I'm not exactly sure what is point here is other than his usual call for more government spending, the facts be damned.

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assume an authority …

Written on March 11th, 2010 by adminno shouts

|Peter Boettke|

Adam Smith finished that thought about government officials assuming an authority over the economic affairs as follows: "which can safely be trusted, not only to no single person, but to no council or senate whatever, and which would nowhere be so dangerous as in the hands of a man who had folly and presumption enough to fancy himself fit to exercise it."

In discussing monetary policy, Ludwig von Mises had this to say:

"We have a similar situation with inflation. Where does inflation start? It starts as soon as you increase the quantity of money. And where does the danger point begin? That is another problem. The question cannot be answered precisely. People must realize that you cannot give a statesman advice: “This is the point up to which you may go and beyond this point you may not go, and so on, you know.” Life is not as simple as that. But what we have to realize, what we have to know when we are dealing with money and monetary problems, is always the same. We have to realize that the increase in the quantity of money, the increase of those things which have the power to be used for monetary purposes, must be restricted at every point." (from the forthcoming collection of lectures of Mises on Money and Inflation compiled by Bettina Bien Greaves)

A constant refrain in Jim Buchanan's classes was "You cannot proffer advice as if you are giving it to a benevolent despot." Economic policy discussions and institutional designs must take Hume's idea seriously that for design purposes we must assume all men are knaves and build in the necessary fail-safe.

So when you think about institutional designs, remember the warning from Adam Smith provided in the title of this post -- government officials can be opportunistic, incompetent, and incapable, but rarely can they, if ever, be trusted with the power that they wield.  So why do we let them "assume an authority"?

HT: Adam Martin

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Interview at Self Directed Investor

Written on March 10th, 2010 by adminno shouts

|Peter Boettke|

I did an interview today with Scott Nystrom at Self Directed Investor.  It is on their website for roughly the next 24 hours, and then after that will be in their interview archives.

Thanks Scott for the great opportunity.

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