PMQs: No Score Draw

November 19th, 2008 admin

This was a much quieter PMQs than last week - that much was inevitable. David Cameron started by asking about credit for small businesses and saying that the government needs to do more to get credit moving. He said the establishment of new institutions to underwrite lending was needed. He also asked if any more taxpayer funding for the banking system was being considered. Answer came there none. Brown said there needed to be a fiscal expansion and he would "take all the measures necessary".

Cameron then turned to the Pre Budget Report. Accused Brown of embarking on a borrowing binge. Brown says there will need to be a fiscal expansion to help small businesses. Cameron accused Brown of forgetting the difference between monetary and fiscal policy. He then accused Mandelson of admitting there would have to be long term tax rises. "We have made our choice," he said. Brown went on about how the rest of the world were following his example and that monetary policy was not enough. He accused Cameron of setting his face against that.

Cameron then quoted Derek Scott, Blair's former economic adviser. Scott had said it was 'drivel' that the crisis was not of the government's own making. Quoted Brown's own words back at him about unfunded tax cuts. Asked: "If he doesn't agree with his Trade Secretary or Derek Scott, does he agree with himself?"

Brown: "Do we want to help people through difficult times, or do we want to take the advice of the 1980s and 1990s and do absolutely nothing to help people in time of need?"

I missed Clegg's first question as my connection stalled. Clegg accused Brown of "strutting his stuff on the world stage". Said Bankers couldn't believe their luck. Got millions of taxpayers money, don't have to lend and can keep their bonuses.

All in all rather uneventful.

Brown 6
Cameron 6
Clegg 6

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Price Rise Correction

November 19th, 2008 admin

Yesterday's reporting of the inflation figures left something to be desired. Both Sky and ITN they reported that prices had dropped (due to the drop in inflation to 4.5%), when in fact it's the rate of increase that has slowed (but still way out of the BoE target range). Both channels then talked to shoppers who complained that prices haven't dropped. Even ITN's Economics Editor (Daisy McAndrew) was talking of falling prices! While it is true to say that some commodities, like petrol, have fallen in price, the prices of most things are still rising. Is it too much to ask for politics and economic journalists to get their terminology right?

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MP Bloggers Censored by Commons Authorities

November 19th, 2008 admin

The House of Commons authorities are stamping down on MPs who say anything remotely controversial on their blogs. The BBC reports that Labour MPs Paul Flynn and Derek Wyatt have been taken to task, not because their blogs are overtly partisan (although they would be the first to admit that they are) but becasue in Flynn's case he had criticised or poked fun at other MPs (including Labour ones) and in Wyatt's because he had uploaded some "unsuitable" videos.

The Commons authorities told Flynn he couldn't use the House of Commons communications allowance to fund his blog if he was going to make fun of MPs and demanded he delete the offending entries. Flynn told them he had no intention of being censored and is now going to pay the £250 running costs out of his own pocket.

In my humble opinion I think it is impossible for an MP to write a worthwhile blog if they fund it out of their allowances. If you are not allowed to indulge in party politics, your blog would be so vanilla as to be not worth reading.

So to any MP thinking of setting up a blog, the message is this. Blogs cost nothing to set up or run and have no server costs if you use the Wordpress or Blogger blogging platforms. There are plenty of people out there who will charge you hundreds, if not thousands, for the pleasure of setting up a blog. But the simple truth is, you don't need them. If you are in any doubt, just get in touch.

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Obama’s choice of church will be more revealing than any political policy

November 19th, 2008 admin

President-Elect Obama bestrides the narrow world like a Colossus, and all the petty politicians of the world are falling over themselves to be granted an audience with this demigod. They pray for the possibility of a phone call that might written about in the newspapers; they dream of photographs, and they are positively orgasmic at the thought of some film footage of a meeting with this man-god. It is not that all he touches turns to gold (which would really be useful at the moment), but that his political aura radiates a kind of divinity, and all who kneel before him to kiss his ring bask in the efficacy of his blessing.

President Obama promised much to many. It is the price one pays for being all things to all people. But his one consistent promise was change, of which he is the very incarnation. And he may well have transformed the image of America abroad, but his transformation will stop short of transubstantiation.

Although he was supported by the majority of America’s Roman Catholics, he shall not worship among them. There is the lovely little St. John's Church just across the park from the White House, which is known as the ‘Church of the Presidents’ and can trace a presidential lineage back to James Madison. And St. John's has a standing invitation: Pew 54 is the President's Pew, reserved for the nation's leader.

But this was the sanctuary of President George W Bush, and President Obama may not wish to hear from the same Episcopalian God as his predecessor, for he sent all manner of curses and plagues.

In truth, the President-Elect has been spiritually homeless ever since he severed his links with his mentor the Rev. Jeremiah Wright and the Trinity Church of Christ in Chicago. This was the man at whose feet Barack Obama learnt the scriptures, at whose home he enjoyed fellowship, in whose embrace he prayed, by whose words he was married, and by whose hands the Obama children were baptised.

He exit from the stage is convenient for all manner of reasons. Not least because it permits the Rev. Billy Graham to play pope once again and preside over the coronation of another president. Actually, although this is possible, it is not likely as Dr Graham is ill with Parkinson's disease and other health problems. The prospect of the first black American president receiving the crown at the hands of a white man may have been a little unpalatable anyway. But Dr Graham remains America’s counsellor, pastor and god-father, and his theological views have from time to time been known to permeate more than a few presidential policies.

And so churches in Washington are falling over themselves to welcome the Obamas to their congregations. And the pressure is most keenly coming from those rooted in African-American culture and history. In his 2006 book ‘The Audacity of Hope’, Barack Obama wrote: ‘the historically black church offered me a second insight: that faith doesn't mean that you don't have doubts, or that you relinquish your hold on this world... You needed to come to church precisely because you were of this world, not apart from it.’

So ‘believing without belonging’ is not an option for him: he has to go somewhere.

And the choice is bewildering:

There are the broad headings – the ‘Christian Right’, the ‘Born-Again’ variety, the ‘Evangelicals’, and these terms are not all mutually inclusive, for there are Evangelicals which are politically liberal or progressive. Black Evangelicals, for example, are overwhelmingly Democrat and identify with the poor and unemployed, but are conservative on issues such as homosexuality and capital punishment. In fact, ‘Evangelical’ is such a broad church it embraces groups as disparate as black Baptists, the Dutch Reformed Churches, Mennonites, Pentecostals, Catholic charismatics and Southern Baptists.

But President Obama is not really a Protestant Evangelical.

Unless he is speaking to them or dining with them.

When the bell rings, he transmutes into whatever he needs to be.

President Obama transcends labels and denominations, and will most likely ‘pick ‘n’ mix’ his theology to match the national mood. And yet he cannot easily church-hop, so it is worth looking at the chief political features of each theological strand, for these will have implications for the United States' role and image in the world.

The three contemporary streams of American Protestantism (‘Fundamentalist’, ‘Liberal’ and ‘Evangelical’) lead to very different ideas about what the country's role in the world should be.

The Fundamentalists tend to be pessimistic about the prospects for peace and security, and perceive the world order as an unbridgeable gulf between the sheep and the goats. They, of course, are the sheep. The goats are anyone who does not like America. Liberals tend to be more optimistic about the prospects for world order, and they perceive the common humanity ruminantia of the sheep and the goats. The Evangelicals occupy the via media.

The Fundamentalists are not only sceptical about social reform; they are hostile to the idea of a world order based on secular morality and on global institutions such as the United Nations. There is no compromise to be had with terrorist regimes, and no cooperation with governments that oppress churches, forbid Christian proselytising, or execute apostates. For the Fundamentalists, the UN is the seat of the Antichrist, Islam is a religion of death and destruction, and the demise of George W Bush hastens the final conflict and the Day of Armageddon.

President Obama shall not fellowship with them, for they shall remind him of Sarah Palin.

For the Liberals, the Bible is not literal narrative, but metaphorical and relative. All people of all faiths are united by their common humanity. The Unitarian Church, introduced to the United States in 1794 by the English scientist and theologian Joseph Priestly, is of this school of theology. It seeks to combine theism, materialism, and determinism which Priestly believed would lead to a proper understanding of the natural world which would promote human progress. He was lauded by Benjamin Franklin and was also a significant theological influence on Thomas Jefferson, although both presidents attended Episcopalian services when they went to church.

Liberals dispense with ‘original sin’ and tend towards universal ethics and entertain the Christ in Buddhism, Hinduism, Judaism, Islam and Atheism. There is a kernel of ethical truth in all people, all religions, and secularism. This optimism positively embraces the prospects for a peaceful world order and about international organisations such as the UN. Liberal Christians have frequently perceived such institutions as the partial fulfilment of the kingdom of God. The Liberal Protestant tradition has influenced such presidents as Franklin Roosevelt, Harry Truman, Dean Acheson, Dwight Eisenhower, and John Foster Dulles. They are typified by their environmentalism and involvement in human rights organisations like Amnesty International. They are also separated from Roman Catholics by their support for abortion and gay rights, and alienated from many Jews by their decreasing support for Israel.

President Obama may fellowship with them, for they are ecumenical and inclusive.

Evangelicals share common roots with Fundamentalism, but their ideas about the world have been heavily influenced by the optimism endemic to the United States. They have a history of ‘soft Calivinism’ and are most comfortable with the teachings of John Wesley. The largest denomination is the Southern Baptist Convention (16.3 million members), and this is followed by the African American churches (which include the National Baptist Convention and the National Baptist Convention of America, representing around 10 million members). It includes the Pentecostals, the Assemblies of God, the Lutheran Church¬ and a few ‘para’ organisations, such as the Campus Crusade for Christ, the Promise Keepers, and the Wycliffe Bible Translators.

Their world may be divided into sheep and goats, but each goat has the possibility to become a sheep. Salvation is available to all, and billions of perishing souls are worthy of great national effort. They will work with Roman Catholics and Jews on issues such as abortion, though are more sceptical of working with Muslims. They not only dedicate their lives to help poor and needy, they see it as the task of America – the light on the hill – to proclaim the gospel and bring lost souls to Christ. But they are pragmatists and can fuse most aspects of US culture with the practice of their faith and belief in moral progress. They expect revival and look forward to the return of Christ, but are less obsessed than the Fundamentalists with the identity of the Antichrist.

The growing influence of evangelicals has affected US foreign policy in several ways, not least the issue of foreign aid and human rights. Evangelical influence also affects US support for Israel. George W Bush appointed Evangelicals to his policy and speech-writing teams, and it is noteworthy that his presidency has seen a 67 per cent increase in aid to Africa, including $15 billion in new spending for programmes to combat HIV and AIDS. Evangelicals do not, however, follow blindly the human rights and humanitarian agendas crafted by liberal and secular leaders. They have made religious freedom a central focus of their efforts. President Bush introduced the International Religious Freedom Act in 1998, establishing an Office of International Religious Freedom in a somewhat sceptical State Department.

President Obama is not likely to fellowship with them, for fear the ‘light on the hill’ be misinterpreted as a moral crusade.

Within these broad Protestant threads is a plethora of denominations, and President Obama could choose to worship with the Episcopalians, the Methodists, the Presbyterians, the Baptists, or the United Church of Christ. And he will find elements within them all which are antithetical to his policies.

Or he could eschew them all, and go to the gym every Sunday, just as he has done throughout his campaign.

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The power of the pen

November 18th, 2008 admin

You know you have made a "hit" when the greenies start squeaking, by which measure Booker's column last Sunday has achieved precisely that.

Only now dropping to number two on the Telegraph website's own "most viewed" list, it has been mentioned on the Drudge Report and many other US websites, as well as sites worldwide. In all well over a hundred blogs seem to have run it, most for and a very few against.

The piece, of course, highlighted the extraordinary blunder made by the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) – prop. James Hansen - in compiling the temperature dataset for October, including September figures from Russia and elsewhere, thus falsely inflating the monthly figure. And, with this flaw embedded and undiscovered, GISS went on to claim that lat October had been the hottest on record.

Reaction to Booker's piece on the comment's section was quite remarkable, with a huge number of replies, most of the in support of the article, but the one I enjoyed most was an anti, which stormed: "Every, and I mean every, comment on this thread made by the deniers that addresses the SCIENCE of GW is wrong … That applies also to the many worthless websites that are linked to by those in denial over AGW."

That, of course, refers primarily to the two key blogs which, more than any, have, with their expert commentators, exposed the flawed data used by GISS. The first is the invaluable Watts up with that whose current post on the issue sports no less than 270 comments.

The second is Steve McIntyre's Climate Audit. His current post picks up a mere 141 comments, but then he has done a wholes series of posts on the issue, with the comments on each running to the hundreds.

Displaying an ironic sense of humour, McIntyre even heads a post asking, "Did Napoleon use Hansen's Temperature Data?", stating that "It's colder in Russia in October than in September, as Napoleon found out to his cost in 1812."

Flash forward almost 200 years later, McIntyre writes, to the NSA report of record warmth in October throughout Russia, with many sites experiencing similar temperatures in October as in September, and perhaps that was the sort of situation that Napoleon had hoped for - similar in actual temperatures in deg C.

Booker's piece itself was a marvellous example of the synergy that can be achieved between blogs, their commentators and the MSM. It was Watts who picked up the story in the first place and his expert readers then piled in to find out why the temperature record was so high, putting their findings on the comments section. McIntyre had also picked it up, and did a series of technical evaluations, with his readers joining in.

The now disjointed but technically comprehensive effort was then picked up by Booker, synthesised and compressed down to a mere 750 words amd published in The Sunday Telegraph, whence it was picked up and spread throughout the world on more than 100 blogs, the cumulative readership now running to millions.

As for the greenies, lead naysayer is Gavin Hudson on his blog "Eco Worldly", who storms: "The power of the pen, when used irresponsibly, serves not to illuminate and progress human discourse, but to confuse and stifle it. Christopher Booker's article does a disservice to climate skeptics and climate activists alike."

Under the heading, "The Bias and Logical Fallacies of Christopher Booker's ‘Freezing Heat'" Hudson purports to debunk Booker's piece, accusing him, inter alia of resorting to ad hominem attacks of (sic) climate scientists.

But what is hugely ironic is that the piece itself is one long ad hominem attack on Booker. What gives the game away is that this author presents case made by Booker as if it were his, and his alone, an expression of his personal opinion.

Nowhere does Hudson mention either Watts or McIntyre (which means, of course, he does not link to either's site) yet the whole thrust of Booker's piece was to report the drama unfolding on these sites. They take the central place in his account and, on the online edition, there are active links to both sites.

Thus, you can see Hudson's game. His task – as with all the greenies – is to control the flow of information, close down the debate and silence, or denigrate the critics. Controlling the flow of information, incidentally, is what the MSM also does. Although scarcely a day goes by without the media running a "warmist" story and you can bet that, if the GISS figures had not been savaged by two expert bloggers and their readers, the "hottest October on record" would have spread throughout the MSM like wildfire.

But, strangely, when the great greenie guru James Hansen makes a complete Horlicks of the figures, not a word is said, apart from the Booker column. Such is the real "power of the pen". Never is it so powerful, in the media's hands – to say nothing of the greenies - as when it is not used. It is perhaps deeply significant, therefore, that Hudson should use for his illustration for his piece (which I've nicked - top left), a pristine pen, evidently unused.

COMMENT THREAD

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